Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
- Status: Open for trading
- Resolves by: December 31, 2026
How this prediction market works
This is an on-chain prediction market on ZanoX. You forecast the outcome by taking a position in Yes or No at the current market price; each correct share settles at full value when the market resolves. Prices move with the crowd, and you can exit any time before resolution. Settlement happens on the Zano blockchain — non-custodial, no account, no KYC.
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