Will Trump grant SBF a pardon or clemency by Dec 31, 2026?

This market resolves YES if, on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), President Donald J. Trump grants Samuel Bankman-Fried ("SBF") any form of federal executive clemency relating to his 2023 federal fraud and conspiracy convictions. "Clemency" includes ANY of: a full or unconditional pardon; a conditional pardon; a "pardon after completion of sentence" (restoration of civil rights); a commutation of sentence (full or partial); or a reprieve. The grant must be officially issued and recorded by the White House and/or the U.S. Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney, and must specifically name or apply to Samuel Bankman-Fried. A mere statement of intent, a pending petition, public consideration, or a grant to a different person does NOT count. This market resolves NO if no such clemency is granted to SBF on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — including if his petition remains pending or is denied. A release or vacatur achieved solely through the COURTS (e.g., a successful appeal, new trial, or resentencing) rather than by presidential clemency does NOT count as a YES. Primary resolution sources: the White House, the DOJ Office of the Pardon Attorney clemency records, and a consensus of credible reporting.

• Status: Open for trading
• Resolves by: January 1, 2027