Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Resolved: No ✓ — May 1, 2026
Resolution source: Polymarket + Official sources
Final odds at resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Live geopolitics markets you can trade now
About resolved prediction markets
This market ran on ZanoX, where forecasters take positions on real-world outcomes at crowd-set prices — the closing probability reflects what the market expected before the result was known. Resolved markets are kept as a permanent record of what prediction markets forecast. Want to forecast what happens next? Explore Geopolitics prediction markets or all live markets — non-custodial, no account, no KYC.